Forecasted Win Rate¶

Definition¶

Forecasted Win Rate estimates the likelihood of closing a deal based on pipeline characteristics, buyer behavior, and historical data. It helps predict revenue with greater accuracy.

Description¶

Forecasted Win Rate is a key indicator of sales effectiveness and pipeline quality, reflecting how likely current opportunities are to close based on scoring models, deal stage progression, persona alignment, and historical patterns.

The relevance and interpretation of this metric shift depending on the model or product:

In B2B, it includes deal size, stakeholder engagement, industry fit, and use case relevance
In PLG models, it may also consider product usage signals, user behavior, or trial activation depth
In hybrid models, it helps balance manual sales effort with product signals for qualification

A rising forecasted win rate typically signals a healthy pipeline, solid ICP alignment, and effective qualification, while a decline may indicate padded forecasting or messaging misalignment. By segmenting by persona, sales stage, source, or deal size, you can refine lead scoring, prioritize high-likelihood deals, and eliminate pipeline bloat.

Forecasted Win Rate informs:

Strategic decisions, like forecasting, sales capacity planning, and GTM alignment
Tactical actions, such as deal prioritization, outreach optimization, and AE coaching
Operational improvements, including CRM hygiene and lead quality review
Cross-functional alignment, connecting RevOps, sales, and marketing teams around realistic, data-backed revenue projections

Key Drivers¶

These are the main factors that directly impact the metric. Understanding these lets you know what levers you can pull to improve the outcome

Pipeline Hygiene and Deal Stage Accuracy: If reps overstate deal progress, win rate forecasts will be inflated and unreliable.
Historical Conversion Benchmarks by Stage: Using real past data per stage ensures weighting reflects actual behavior.
Sales Rep Confidence vs. Deal Reality: Forecasts that rely on subjective rep input (vs. signals like buyer activity) are prone to optimism bias.

Improvement Tactics & Quick Wins¶

Actionable ideas to optimize this KPI, from fast, low-effort wins to strategic initiatives that drive measurable impact.

If forecasted win rate is way off actuals, rework your stage weightings based on historical close data.
Add predictive scoring based on buyer behavior (email opens, meeting activity, mutual action plans).
Run a test with auto-generated confidence scores vs. rep-reported probability — compare accuracy.
Refine pipeline reviews to include stage revalidation checkpoints (“What’s the next confirmed step?”).
Partner with RevOps to integrate deal health signals into your CRM forecast view.

Required Datapoints to calculate the metric
- Open Opportunities
- Stage, Persona, and ICP Match
- Behavioral Signals (e.g. demos, product usage)
- Historical Close Rates by Stage
Example to show how the metric is derived
- 50 deals in pipeline
- Avg. weighted win probability: 48%

Formula¶

Formula

\[ \mathrm{Forecasted\ Win\ Rate} = \left( \mathrm{Weighted\ Close\ Probability\ of\ Active\ Deals} \right) \times 100 \]

Data Model Definition¶

How this KPI is structured in Cube.js, including its key measures, dimensions, and calculation logic for consistent reporting.

OpportunitiesStagesPersonasBehavioralSignals

cube('Opportunities', {
  sql: `SELECT * FROM opportunities`,

  joins: {
    Stages: {
      relationship: 'belongsTo',
      sql: `${CUBE}.stage_id = ${Stages}.id`
    },
    Personas: {
      relationship: 'belongsTo',
      sql: `${CUBE}.persona_id = ${Personas}.id`
    },
    BehavioralSignals: {
      relationship: 'hasMany',
      sql: `${CUBE}.id = ${BehavioralSignals}.opportunity_id`
    }
  },

  measures: {
    forecastedWinRate: {
      sql: `forecasted_win_rate`,
      type: 'number',
      title: 'Forecasted Win Rate',
      description: 'Estimated likelihood of closing a deal based on pipeline characteristics, buyer behavior, and historical data.'
    }
  },

  dimensions: {
    id: {
      sql: `id`,
      type: 'string',
      primaryKey: true
    },
    stage: {
      sql: `${Stages}.name`,
      type: 'string',
      title: 'Stage'
    },
    persona: {
      sql: `${Personas}.name`,
      type: 'string',
      title: 'Persona'
    },
    icpMatch: {
      sql: `icp_match`,
      type: 'string',
      title: 'ICP Match'
    },
    createdAt: {
      sql: `created_at`,
      type: 'time',
      title: 'Created At'
    }
  }
})

cube('Stages', {
  sql: `SELECT * FROM stages`,

  measures: {},

  dimensions: {
    id: {
      sql: `id`,
      type: 'string',
      primaryKey: true
    },
    name: {
      sql: `name`,
      type: 'string',
      title: 'Stage Name'
    }
  }
})

cube('Personas', {
  sql: `SELECT * FROM personas`,

  measures: {},

  dimensions: {
    id: {
      sql: `id`,
      type: 'string',
      primaryKey: true
    },
    name: {
      sql: `name`,
      type: 'string',
      title: 'Persona Name'
    }
  }
})

cube('BehavioralSignals', {
  sql: `SELECT * FROM behavioral_signals`,

  measures: {},

  dimensions: {
    id: {
      sql: `id`,
      type: 'string',
      primaryKey: true
    },
    opportunityId: {
      sql: `opportunity_id`,
      type: 'string',
      title: 'Opportunity ID'
    },
    signalType: {
      sql: `signal_type`,
      type: 'string',
      title: 'Signal Type'
    },
    eventTime: {
      sql: `event_time`,
      type: 'time',
      title: 'Event Time'
    }
  }
})

Note: This is a reference implementation and should be used as a starting point. You’ll need to adapt it to match your own data model and schema

Positive & Negative Influences¶

Negative influences

Factors that drive the metric in an undesirable direction, often signaling risk or decline.
- Pipeline Hygiene and Deal Stage Accuracy: Inaccurate representation of deal stages can lead to inflated win rate forecasts, as overstated progress does not reflect true deal status.
- Sales Rep Confidence vs. Deal Reality: Over-reliance on subjective sales rep input can introduce optimism bias, skewing win rate forecasts away from actual likelihood.
- Inconsistent Historical Data Usage: Failure to use consistent historical conversion benchmarks can result in misaligned weighting, negatively impacting forecast accuracy.
- Lack of Buyer Activity Signals: Ignoring buyer behavior signals in favor of subjective inputs can reduce the reliability of win rate predictions.
- Overestimation of Deal Value: Overestimating deal value without considering realistic buyer engagement can lead to misleading win rate forecasts.
Positive influences

Factors that push the metric in a favorable direction, supporting growth or improvement.
- Accurate Pipeline Hygiene: Ensuring accurate deal stage representation enhances the reliability of win rate forecasts by reflecting true deal progress.
- Historical Conversion Benchmarks by Stage: Utilizing real past data for each stage ensures that forecasts are grounded in actual historical behavior, improving accuracy.
- Incorporation of Buyer Activity: Including buyer behavior signals in forecasts increases the likelihood of accurately predicting win rates.
- Objective Data-Driven Inputs: Relying on objective data rather than subjective inputs reduces bias and enhances forecast reliability.
- Regular Forecast Adjustments: Regularly updating forecasts with the latest data ensures they remain aligned with current pipeline dynamics, improving accuracy.

Involved Roles & Activities¶

Involved Roles

These roles are typically responsible for implementing or monitoring this KPI:

Finance
Product Marketing (PMM)
Revenue Operations
Sales Manager
Activities

Common initiatives or actions associated with this KPI:

Revenue Forecasting
Sales Pipeline Management
GTM Strategy
Lead Scoring

Funnel Stage & Type¶

AAARRR Funnel Stage

This KPI is associated with the following stages in the AAARRR (Pirate Metrics) funnel:

Revenue
Type

This KPI is classified as a Lagging Indicator. It reflects the results of past actions or behaviors and is used to validate performance or assess the impact of previous strategies.

Supporting Leading & Lagging Metrics¶

Leading

These leading indicators influence this KPI and act as early signals that forecast future changes in this KPI.
- Deal Velocity: Deal Velocity is a strong leading indicator for Forecasted Win Rate as it measures the speed at which deals progress through the pipeline. Faster deal velocity often signals better pipeline health and higher likelihood of winning deals, thus increasing the forecasted win rate.
- Product Qualified Leads: Product Qualified Leads (PQLs) provide an early signal of sales readiness and buyer intent. A higher volume or quality of PQLs typically results in a stronger sales pipeline and increases the likelihood of future closed-won deals, directly influencing the forecasted win rate.
- SQL-to-Opportunity Conversion Rate: This metric tracks the efficiency of converting Sales Qualified Leads into opportunities. Higher conversion rates signal that the pipeline is filled with high-quality prospects, which is predictive of a higher forecasted win rate down the funnel.
- Win Rate: Current and historical Win Rate trends serve as a benchmark and input for forecasting future performance. Improvements in Win Rate among similar opportunity types or segments can lead to upward adjustments in the forecasted win rate.
- Activation Rate: A high Activation Rate means more users are reaching meaningful product engagement milestones, increasing the pool of viable leads and ultimately influencing the likelihood of converting opportunities into closed-won deals, which raises the forecasted win rate.
Lagging

These lagging indicators confirm, quantify, or amplify this KPI and help explain the broader business impact on this KPI after the fact.
- Conversion Rate: Conversion Rate quantifies the percentage of engaged prospects who take a desired action (like signing a contract or purchase). It provides post-facto validation of whether the forecasted win rate was accurate, and helps calibrate future forecasting models.
- Customer Downgrade Rate: A high Customer Downgrade Rate can signal underlying issues with product fit, pricing, or satisfaction that may not be immediately visible during the sales process. It can be used to explain discrepancies between forecasted and actual win rates, and identify segments with lower-than-expected performance.
- Pipeline Value Growth: This metric measures changes in the total value of open opportunities, providing context to the overall health of the pipeline. It helps explain whether changes in forecasted win rate are due to shifts in opportunity size, volume, or quality.
- Churn Risk Score: Aggregate Churn Risk Scores for accounts in the pipeline can provide backward-looking explanations for missed forecasts, as deals with high churn risk may close at lower rates than predicted, impacting actual win rates.
- Average Deal Size: Average Deal Size helps contextualize the business impact of changes in the forecasted win rate. If win rate is high but average deal size is shrinking, the revenue impact may be less than forecasted, providing a fuller picture of performance versus prediction.