Expansion Opportunity Score¶

Definition¶

Expansion Opportunity Score is a weighted score that indicates how likely an existing customer is to expand based on usage, engagement, intent, and fit. It helps prioritize accounts for cross-sell and upsell.

Description¶

Expansion Opportunity Score is a key indicator of customer growth potential and upsell prioritization, reflecting how a blend of behavioral, firmographic, and engagement signals quantifies an account’s readiness for expansion.

The relevance and interpretation of this metric shift depending on the model or product:

In SaaS, it might score feature usage, CS engagement, team size growth, or product maturity
In enterprise account models, it could reflect cross-department interest, stakeholder growth, or usage of adjacent modules
In usage-based products, it might combine consumption growth and new user activation

A rising score indicates clear expansion signals and stronger customer alignment, while a flat or low score may reflect dormant opportunity or misaligned account growth strategies. By segmenting by account tier, region, or product line, you unlock insights to refine your expansion forecast, prioritize CS time, and optimize outreach timing.

Expansion Opportunity Score informs:

Strategic decisions, like forecasting expansion pipeline or building account-based GTM plays
Tactical actions, such as triggering upsell messaging or prioritizing high-potential QBRs
Operational improvements, including automated workflows and CS playbooks for score thresholds
Cross-functional alignment, by uniting CS, sales, and PMM around a shared view of where expansion is most likely and valuable

Key Drivers¶

These are the main factors that directly impact the metric. Understanding these lets you know what levers you can pull to improve the outcome

Product Usage Milestones: High activity, feature adoption, or nearing usage limits signal readiness for more value.
Account Growth Indicators: Team size increase, new users, or department expansion correlate with upsell potential.
Intent Signals (Pricing Page, Plan Exploration): Clicking “Upgrade” or viewing billing settings shows proactive interest.

Improvement Tactics & Quick Wins¶

Actionable ideas to optimize this KPI, from fast, low-effort wins to strategic initiatives that drive measurable impact.

If scores are inconsistent, enrich your scoring model with more behavioral signals (e.g., feature adoption, user invites).
Add in-app tracking to expansion feature discovery actions — like clicks on upgrade options.
Run a test with CS outreach only to 8+ score accounts and measure conversion vs. random outreach.
Refine CRM fields to capture changes in company size, team structure, or new use cases.
Partner with RevOps to build auto-alerts when expansion score passes threshold.

Required Datapoints to calculate the metric
- Weighted Inputs (e.g., usage frequency, intent events, CS score, firmographics)
- Scoring Model Definition
- Total Active Accounts
Example to show how the metric is derived
- Inputs: Feature usage (30 pts), intent signals (40 pts), CS score (20 pts), account growth (10 pts)
- Total Score: 100

Formula¶

Formula

\[ \mathrm{Expansion\ Opportunity\ Score} = \left( \frac{\mathrm{Composite\ Weighted\ Score}}{100} \right) \times 100 \]

Data Model Definition¶

How this KPI is structured in Cube.js, including its key measures, dimensions, and calculation logic for consistent reporting.

ExpansionOpportunityScore

cube('ExpansionOpportunityScore', {
  sql: `SELECT * FROM expansion_opportunity_scores`,

  joins: {
    Accounts: {
      relationship: 'belongsTo',
      sql: `${CUBE}.account_id = ${Accounts}.id`
    }
  },

  measures: {
    expansionOpportunityScore: {
      sql: `expansion_opportunity_score`,
      type: 'number',
      title: 'Expansion Opportunity Score',
      description: 'Weighted score indicating likelihood of account expansion based on usage, engagement, intent, and fit.'
    },
    totalActiveAccounts: {
      sql: `account_id`,
      type: 'countDistinct',
      title: 'Total Active Accounts',
      description: 'Total number of active accounts.'
    }
  },

  dimensions: {
    id: {
      sql: `id`,
      type: 'string',
      primaryKey: true,
      title: 'ID',
      description: 'Unique identifier for each expansion opportunity score record.'
    },
    accountId: {
      sql: `account_id`,
      type: 'string',
      title: 'Account ID',
      description: 'Identifier for the account associated with the score.'
    },
    usageFrequency: {
      sql: `usage_frequency`,
      type: 'number',
      title: 'Usage Frequency',
      description: 'Frequency of usage events for the account.'
    },
    intentEvents: {
      sql: `intent_events`,
      type: 'number',
      title: 'Intent Events',
      description: 'Number of intent events recorded for the account.'
    },
    csScore: {
      sql: `cs_score`,
      type: 'number',
      title: 'CS Score',
      description: 'Customer success score for the account.'
    },
    firmographics: {
      sql: `firmographics`,
      type: 'string',
      title: 'Firmographics',
      description: 'Firmographic data related to the account.'
    },
    createdAt: {
      sql: `created_at`,
      type: 'time',
      title: 'Created At',
      description: 'Timestamp when the score was created.'
    }
  }
});

Note: This is a reference implementation and should be used as a starting point. You’ll need to adapt it to match your own data model and schema

Positive & Negative Influences¶

Negative influences

Factors that drive the metric in an undesirable direction, often signaling risk or decline.
- Churn Risk Indicators: Signs of potential churn, such as decreased usage or negative feedback, negatively impact the Expansion Opportunity Score.
- Support Ticket Volume: A high volume of unresolved support tickets can indicate dissatisfaction, reducing the likelihood of expansion.
- Product Usage Decline: A decrease in product usage suggests reduced value perception, negatively affecting the score.
- Competitive Engagement: Increased engagement with competitors' offerings can signal a risk of losing the customer, negatively impacting the score.
- Billing Issues: Frequent billing issues or disputes can lead to customer dissatisfaction, reducing expansion potential.
Positive influences

Factors that push the metric in a favorable direction, supporting growth or improvement.
- Product Usage Milestones: Increased product usage and reaching key milestones indicate a higher likelihood of expansion as customers derive more value from the product.
- Account Growth Indicators: Growth in team size or addition of new users suggests a greater need for expanded services, enhancing the Expansion Opportunity Score.
- Intent Signals (Pricing Page, Plan Exploration): Frequent visits to pricing pages or exploring different plans demonstrate a proactive interest in upgrading, positively impacting the score.
- Customer Engagement: Higher levels of engagement with the product or support services often lead to increased satisfaction and expansion potential.
- Customer Fit: A strong alignment between customer needs and product offerings increases the likelihood of expansion, positively influencing the score.

Involved Roles & Activities¶

Involved Roles

These roles are typically responsible for implementing or monitoring this KPI:

Customer Success
Finance
Product Marketing (PMM)
Revenue Operations
Sales Manager
Activities

Common initiatives or actions associated with this KPI:

Expansion Targeting
Sales Forecasting
Growth Pipeline Planning
Intent Scoring

Funnel Stage & Type¶

AAARRR Funnel Stage

This KPI is associated with the following stages in the AAARRR (Pirate Metrics) funnel:

Revenue
Type

This KPI is classified as a Lagging Indicator. It reflects the results of past actions or behaviors and is used to validate performance or assess the impact of previous strategies.

Supporting Leading & Lagging Metrics¶

Leading

These leading indicators influence this KPI and act as early signals that forecast future changes in this KPI.
- Product Qualified Accounts: Product Qualified Accounts (PQAs) represent accounts with strong engagement and product fit, signaling future likelihood of expansion. High PQA volume or quality increases the pool of accounts likely to generate high Expansion Opportunity Scores.
- Activation Rate: Activation Rate measures how many users reach key early milestones, which is a prerequisite for later expansion. High activation among existing accounts predicts an increase in expansion opportunities.
- Customer Health Score: A strong Customer Health Score reflects a combination of engagement, satisfaction, and usage. High health scores among accounts typically precede higher Expansion Opportunity Scores, as healthy accounts are more expansion-ready.
- Deal Velocity: Faster Deal Velocity indicates greater momentum in the sales pipeline, often reflecting engaged, high-fit customers. This increases the likelihood of uncovering and prioritizing expansion opportunities in existing accounts.
- Cross-Sell Conversion Rate: A high Cross-Sell Conversion Rate shows customers' responsiveness to additional offers, acting as an early signal that also forecasts future increases in Expansion Opportunity Scores.
Lagging

These lagging indicators confirm, quantify, or amplify this KPI and help explain the broader business impact on this KPI after the fact.
- Expansion Readiness Index: Expansion Readiness Index is a composite score directly quantifying readiness for upsell/cross-sell. It often explains or amplifies the Expansion Opportunity Score, as both measure similar expansion potential using overlapping signals.
- Customer Engagement Score: Customer Engagement Score quantifies ongoing engagement, which is a key factor in expansion opportunity. Higher engagement scores among accounts validate and explain high Expansion Opportunity Scores after the fact.
- Expansion Revenue Growth Rate: Expansion Revenue Growth Rate measures realized expansion revenue, confirming how well high Expansion Opportunity Scores predict actual business impact from cross-sell/upsell.
- Expansion Activation Rate: Expansion Activation Rate shows the percentage of accounts adopting new features or products. It provides a downstream validation of high Expansion Opportunity Scores by confirming actual expansion activity.
- Net Revenue Retention: Net Revenue Retention aggregates expansion (and contraction) revenue impacts across the base. High Expansion Opportunity Scores should correlate with strong NRR, which confirms the broader business impact of effective expansion targeting.